{ "id": "florida-surge-land-2026-cat3", "status": "PUBLISHED_PILOT", "analysisDate": "2026-10-11", "scenario": "Modeled Category 3 high-tide, near-worst-case MOM; not a current event", "source": { "name": "NOAA National Storm Surge Risk Maps v4", "reprocessing": "June 2026", "publicReleaseDate": "2026-06-18", "archiveDirectoryDate": "2026-06-17", "internalProcessDate": "2026-06-14", "boundaryVintage": 2026, "boundaryReferenceDate": "2026-01-01", "boundaryPostedDate": "2026-10-06", "nativeCRS": "EPSG:4269", "pixelSizeDegrees": 8.983152841195154e-05, "noDataCode": 255, "leveeCode": 99 }, "method": { "denominator": "Full 2026 Census municipal land geometry, including land with NoData.", "landMask": "Same-vintage TIGER/Line county FACES, selected PLACEFP, LWFLAG=L. These cities contain only L/P faces; L/P ATOTAL sums equal PLACE ALAND/AWATER.", "area": "Native-class raster row runs intersected with each original Census land face. Geographic edges densified to at most 0.00005 degrees, transformed to EPSG:5070, areas summed in square metres.", "slivers": "All positive-area intersections retained. No area threshold removes canals or sliver cells.", "map": "Class polygons clipped to identical land mask; topology-preserving 1 m display simplification only. Maps use local NAD83 UTM grid north. White is outside the municipality; blue is Census water. No basemap requests.", "rounding": "UI shares rounded to 0.1 percentage point, areas to 0.01 km\u00b2. Rounded shares may not add to 100%. Exports retain calculation precision, not a claim of model accuracy.", "comparison": "Two independently implemented decoders and two intersection methods checked. Convergence halving densification step changed class areas by <0.00069 m\u00b2. This is computational validation, not external scientific peer review or NOAA endorsement." }, "limitations": [ "NoData does not distinguish dry land from masking or unsupported areas. It does not mean dry or safe.", "Mapped class-area fractions are not probabilities, forecasts, evacuation zones, parcel conclusions or HomeRiskIQ scores.", "A MOM combines maxima from many hypothetical storms; no single storm produces its entire footprint.", "Depth-class bins are feet above ground, not continuous depths or water elevations.", "The roughly 10 m output is finer than the underlying hydrodynamic modeling; coastlines and small features have uncertainty.", "This source does not measure future sea-level rise, erosion, subsidence, future construction, large waves or all inland/freshwater flooding. Local defenses may be incomplete.", "Census municipal boundaries and land/water definitions determine the denominator. Results should not be read as neighborhood or household exposure." ], "sources": [ { "file": "tl_2025_12015_faces.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2025/FACES/tl_2025_12015_faces.zip", "bytes": 6226266, "sha256": "cca402b87c9acb156d3ef7b8bd9504dd675d18494eb9b8e1658fc28a4c426e30" }, { "file": "tl_2025_12091_faces.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2025/FACES/tl_2025_12091_faces.zip", "bytes": 5234485, "sha256": "4c55186897cf00bdd43c01a629b282871f7d974984bb84c22a69d6c918584710" }, { "file": "tl_2025_12_place.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2025/PLACE/tl_2025_12_place.zip", "bytes": 7068141, "sha256": "4394a80089284477cf79daefb754afd7e9f90683415d3398376e5c2152960876" }, { "file": "tl_2026_12015_faces.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2026/FACES/tl_2026_12015_faces.zip", "bytes": 5582831, "sha256": "b1e59ed8dc83405e6cdeef4186f2b9ae36e101cb3394ae6dcbaf4c4464d95321" }, { "file": "tl_2026_12091_faces.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2026/FACES/tl_2026_12091_faces.zip", "bytes": 4642002, "sha256": "5b458f555cc806162ef2b82cc38cdde9f2ee04d7a76c5d0a32f5a5c29dfa8ffd" }, { "file": "tl_2026_12_place.zip", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/TIGER2026/PLACE/tl_2026_12_place.zip", "bytes": 7126286, "sha256": "38a86feeb17300f9991d5c89b5fb1d61c42823cc4bacb1f7f0738605a22ed8ec" }, { "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/hazardmaps/US_SLOSH_MOM_Inundation_v4.zip", "member": "US_SLOSH_MOM_Inundation_v4_20260617/us_Category3_MOM_Inundation_HIGH.tif", "compressed_bytes_read": 250490121, "raster_bytes": 853740643, "sha256": "8a66b5cb675a5f3459f286331dba845d464d33877f228b159692377a3a441961", "central_directory_crc32": 2351602198 } ], "cities": [ { "name": "Fort Walton Beach", "slug": "fort-walton-beach", "geoid": "1224475", "censusLandM2": 19788070, "censusWaterM2": 201436, "landAreaM2": 19788064.350175675, "waterAreaM2": 201438.6129680603, "bands": [ { "id": "under-3", "label": "Mapped <3 ft", "codes": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "color": "#fff0cd", "areaM2": 1685392.7615146206, "percent": 8.517218923940167 }, { "id": "3-to-6", "label": "Mapped 3\u2013<6 ft", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6 ], "color": "#fdc37b", "areaM2": 1066344.4331228884, "percent": 5.3888263867174135 }, { "id": "6-to-9", "label": "Mapped 6\u2013<9 ft", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9 ], "color": "#ef8659", "areaM2": 423753.01438004663, "percent": 2.1414576326475543 }, { "id": "9-plus", "label": "Mapped 9+ ft", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "color": "#a52b45", "areaM2": 59464.025719875564, "percent": 0.3005045095244379 }, { "id": "unknown", "label": "Unclassified / NoData", "codes": [ 255 ], "color": "#e2e8f0", "areaM2": 16553110.11528897, "percent": 83.65199254641605 }, { "id": "levee", "label": "Levee special class", "codes": [ 99 ], "color": "#e5c5ee", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 } ], "classes": [ { "code": 1, "label": "<1 ft", "areaM2": 676566.0646927541, "percent": 3.419061373159258 }, { "code": 2, "label": "1\u20132 ft", "areaM2": 546565.9143671242, "percent": 2.762098933452639 }, { "code": 3, "label": "2\u20133 ft", "areaM2": 462260.7824547423, "percent": 2.3360586173282707 }, { "code": 4, "label": "3\u20134 ft", "areaM2": 398943.999748926, "percent": 2.016084002402106 }, { "code": 5, "label": "4\u20135 ft", "areaM2": 353081.0917258957, "percent": 1.7843134400498406 }, { "code": 6, "label": "5\u20136 ft", "areaM2": 314319.34164806665, "percent": 1.5884289442654667 }, { "code": 7, "label": "6\u20137 ft", "areaM2": 208045.60260102275, "percent": 1.051369143132869 }, { "code": 8, "label": "7\u20138 ft", "areaM2": 142418.11500999803, "percent": 0.7197172623341184 }, { "code": 9, "label": "8\u20139 ft", "areaM2": 73289.29676902584, "percent": 0.3703712271805665 }, { "code": 10, "label": "9\u201310 ft", "areaM2": 37884.93370151873, "percent": 0.19145345917162632 }, { "code": 11, "label": "10\u201311 ft", "areaM2": 15249.351082662848, "percent": 0.07706337928159945 }, { "code": 12, "label": "11\u201312 ft", "areaM2": 6189.307832404, "percent": 0.03127798516760459 }, { "code": 13, "label": "12\u201313 ft", "areaM2": 140.4331032899836, "percent": 0.0007096859036075291 }, { "code": 14, "label": "13\u201314 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 15, "label": "14\u201315 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 16, "label": "15\u201316 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 17, "label": "16\u201317 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 18, "label": "17\u201318 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 19, "label": "18\u201319 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 20, "label": "19\u201320 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 21, "label": ">20 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 99, "label": "Levee special class; not a depth", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 255, "label": "NoData does not distinguish dry land from masking or unsupported areas. It does not mean dry or safe.", "areaM2": 16553110.11528897, "percent": 83.65199254641605 } ], "thresholds": [ { "minimumBinFt": 3, "label": "3\u20134 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 7.830788528889404 }, { "minimumBinFt": 6, "label": "6\u20137 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 2.441962142171992 }, { "minimumBinFt": 9, "label": "9\u201310 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 0.3005045095244379 } ], "note": "The municipal boundary includes detached areas. Most city land has no reported depth class in this file; do not interpret that as safety.", "map": { "png": "fort-walton-beach.png", "svg": "fort-walton-beach.svg", "crs": "EPSG:26916", "displaySimplificationM": 1, "analyticalSimplificationM": 0 }, "validation": { "pixelsCompared": 757094, "pixelMismatches": 0, "partitionDifferenceM2": -0.00014927610754966736, "landVsCensusDifferenceM2": -5.649824324995279, "landWaterOverlapM2": 0.0, "facesPlaceSymmetricDifferenceM2": 0.0, "independentMaxClassDifferencePercentagePoints": 8.354885559902464e-06, "retainedIntersectionsBelow1M2": 235, "retainedIntersectionAreaBelow1M2": 74.68723286008051 }, "boundarySensitivity": { "exact3FtBinPlusPercent": 7.830788528889405, "center3FtBinPlusPercent": 7.8558142511604965, "allTouched3FtBinPlusPercent": 7.9900340822848195 } }, { "name": "Punta Gorda", "slug": "punta-gorda", "geoid": "1259200", "censusLandM2": 40028071, "censusWaterM2": 43716490, "landAreaM2": 40028081.21692074, "waterAreaM2": 43716472.928507164, "bands": [ { "id": "under-3", "label": "Mapped <3 ft", "codes": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "color": "#fff0cd", "areaM2": 734873.7071941323, "percent": 1.8358954135515373 }, { "id": "3-to-6", "label": "Mapped 3\u2013<6 ft", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6 ], "color": "#fdc37b", "areaM2": 871055.6496073772, "percent": 2.176111427592395 }, { "id": "6-to-9", "label": "Mapped 6\u2013<9 ft", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9 ], "color": "#ef8659", "areaM2": 4348944.112624858, "percent": 10.864732908522392 }, { "id": "9-plus", "label": "Mapped 9+ ft", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "color": "#a52b45", "areaM2": 31447607.758745484, "percent": 78.56386517336207 }, { "id": "unknown", "label": "Unclassified / NoData", "codes": [ 255 ], "color": "#e2e8f0", "areaM2": 2625599.9883545083, "percent": 6.559395075986331 }, { "id": "levee", "label": "Levee special class", "codes": [ 99 ], "color": "#e5c5ee", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 } ], "classes": [ { "code": 1, "label": "<1 ft", "areaM2": 195080.0631653412, "percent": 0.48735801775798493 }, { "code": 2, "label": "1\u20132 ft", "areaM2": 260969.51922054632, "percent": 0.6519660980157821 }, { "code": 3, "label": "2\u20133 ft", "areaM2": 278824.12480824476, "percent": 0.6965712977777704 }, { "code": 4, "label": "3\u20134 ft", "areaM2": 267808.4222053518, "percent": 0.6690513611033231 }, { "code": 5, "label": "4\u20135 ft", "areaM2": 294309.7413873183, "percent": 0.7352581798572627 }, { "code": 6, "label": "5\u20136 ft", "areaM2": 308937.48601470713, "percent": 0.7718018866318092 }, { "code": 7, "label": "6\u20137 ft", "areaM2": 451869.59917681, "percent": 1.12888148879291 }, { "code": 8, "label": "7\u20138 ft", "areaM2": 825884.1393322999, "percent": 2.063261875723338 }, { "code": 9, "label": "8\u20139 ft", "areaM2": 3071190.374115748, "percent": 7.672589544006144 }, { "code": 10, "label": "9\u201310 ft", "areaM2": 4384400.625191276, "percent": 10.953312004718063 }, { "code": 11, "label": "10\u201311 ft", "areaM2": 4650806.9850343885, "percent": 11.618860668915579 }, { "code": 12, "label": "11\u201312 ft", "areaM2": 4016705.1662212433, "percent": 10.034718238063569 }, { "code": 13, "label": "12\u201313 ft", "areaM2": 2375573.547621036, "percent": 5.934767481726876 }, { "code": 14, "label": "13\u201314 ft", "areaM2": 2748626.994106654, "percent": 6.866746820091765 }, { "code": 15, "label": "14\u201315 ft", "areaM2": 11251134.540974176, "percent": 28.108103608568868 }, { "code": 16, "label": "15\u201316 ft", "areaM2": 2019247.3530845975, "percent": 5.044576936231002 }, { "code": 17, "label": "16\u201317 ft", "areaM2": 1112.5465121074185, "percent": 0.0027794150463478144 }, { "code": 18, "label": "17\u201318 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 19, "label": "18\u201319 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 20, "label": "19\u201320 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 21, "label": ">20 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 99, "label": "Levee special class; not a depth", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 255, "label": "NoData does not distinguish dry land from masking or unsupported areas. It does not mean dry or safe.", "areaM2": 2625599.9883545083, "percent": 6.559395075986331 } ], "thresholds": [ { "minimumBinFt": 3, "label": "3\u20134 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 91.60470950947683 }, { "minimumBinFt": 6, "label": "6\u20137 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 89.42859808188443 }, { "minimumBinFt": 9, "label": "9\u201310 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 78.56386517336207 } ], "note": "The municipality contains more Census water than land. Water and mapped canals are excluded from the land denominator; narrow shorelines require fractional cell intersections.", "map": { "png": "punta-gorda.png", "svg": "punta-gorda.svg", "crs": "EPSG:26917", "displaySimplificationM": 1, "analyticalSimplificationM": 0 }, "validation": { "pixelsCompared": 1676064, "pixelMismatches": 0, "partitionDifferenceM2": -0.0003943890333175659, "landVsCensusDifferenceM2": 10.216920740902424, "landWaterOverlapM2": 0.0, "facesPlaceSymmetricDifferenceM2": 0.0, "independentMaxClassDifferencePercentagePoints": 1.1299586521373883e-05, "retainedIntersectionsBelow1M2": 1551, "retainedIntersectionAreaBelow1M2": 534.2692807057556 }, "boundarySensitivity": { "exact3FtBinPlusPercent": 91.60470950947686, "center3FtBinPlusPercent": 91.78415698495557, "allTouched3FtBinPlusPercent": 93.4410668527644 } }, { "name": "Destin", "slug": "destin", "geoid": "1217325", "censusLandM2": 19102416, "censusWaterM2": 419294, "landAreaM2": 19102421.30760594, "waterAreaM2": 419297.01284742705, "bands": [ { "id": "under-3", "label": "Mapped <3 ft", "codes": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "color": "#fff0cd", "areaM2": 1822799.8730466997, "percent": 9.542245161983324 }, { "id": "3-to-6", "label": "Mapped 3\u2013<6 ft", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6 ], "color": "#fdc37b", "areaM2": 1492351.2302114957, "percent": 7.8123668522444945 }, { "id": "6-to-9", "label": "Mapped 6\u2013<9 ft", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9 ], "color": "#ef8659", "areaM2": 777392.6356185275, "percent": 4.069602607440116 }, { "id": "9-plus", "label": "Mapped 9+ ft", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "color": "#a52b45", "areaM2": 102373.3107527061, "percent": 0.5359179818316775 }, { "id": "unknown", "label": "Unclassified / NoData", "codes": [ 255 ], "color": "#e2e8f0", "areaM2": 14907504.257734673, "percent": 78.03986739523438 }, { "id": "levee", "label": "Levee special class", "codes": [ 99 ], "color": "#e5c5ee", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 } ], "classes": [ { "code": 1, "label": "<1 ft", "areaM2": 722841.8174423377, "percent": 3.784032431294594 }, { "code": 2, "label": "1\u20132 ft", "areaM2": 610793.3646051781, "percent": 3.197465676050087 }, { "code": 3, "label": "2\u20133 ft", "areaM2": 489164.69099918375, "percent": 2.5607470546386435 }, { "code": 4, "label": "3\u20134 ft", "areaM2": 445049.0407894622, "percent": 2.329804340627011 }, { "code": 5, "label": "4\u20135 ft", "areaM2": 526899.5412768103, "percent": 2.7582866736742777 }, { "code": 6, "label": "5\u20136 ft", "areaM2": 520402.64814522304, "percent": 2.7242758379432046 }, { "code": 7, "label": "6\u20137 ft", "areaM2": 404543.6532426749, "percent": 2.117761129483618 }, { "code": 8, "label": "7\u20138 ft", "areaM2": 247618.7545502795, "percent": 1.2962689418418705 }, { "code": 9, "label": "8\u20139 ft", "areaM2": 125230.22782557321, "percent": 0.6555725361146273 }, { "code": 10, "label": "9\u201310 ft", "areaM2": 56610.49669203964, "percent": 0.29635246642528634 }, { "code": 11, "label": "10\u201311 ft", "areaM2": 25318.71744748308, "percent": 0.1325419277471491 }, { "code": 12, "label": "11\u201312 ft", "areaM2": 19505.13576518148, "percent": 0.10210818540273318 }, { "code": 13, "label": "12\u201313 ft", "areaM2": 938.9608480018982, "percent": 0.004915402256508894 }, { "code": 14, "label": "13\u201314 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 15, "label": "14\u201315 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 16, "label": "15\u201316 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 17, "label": "16\u201317 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 18, "label": "17\u201318 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 19, "label": "18\u201319 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 20, "label": "19\u201320 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 21, "label": ">20 ft", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 99, "label": "Levee special class; not a depth", "areaM2": 0, "percent": 0.0 }, { "code": 255, "label": "NoData does not distinguish dry land from masking or unsupported areas. It does not mean dry or safe.", "areaM2": 14907504.257734673, "percent": 78.03986739523438 } ], "thresholds": [ { "minimumBinFt": 3, "label": "3\u20134 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 12.417887441516285 }, { "minimumBinFt": 6, "label": "6\u20137 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 4.6055205892717925 }, { "minimumBinFt": 9, "label": "9\u201310 ft bin and higher", "codes": [ 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 ], "percent": 0.5359179818316775 } ], "note": "Census land area decreased 310,450 m\u00b2 (1.5992%) between 2025 and 2026. That boundary change affects percentages even with an unchanged surge raster.", "map": { "png": "destin.png", "svg": "destin.svg", "crs": "EPSG:26916", "displaySimplificationM": 1, "analyticalSimplificationM": 0 }, "validation": { "pixelsCompared": 576828, "pixelMismatches": 0, "partitionDifferenceM2": -0.00024183839559555054, "landVsCensusDifferenceM2": 5.307605940848589, "landWaterOverlapM2": 0.0, "facesPlaceSymmetricDifferenceM2": 0.0, "independentMaxClassDifferencePercentagePoints": 4.208522172709116e-06, "retainedIntersectionsBelow1M2": 239, "retainedIntersectionAreaBelow1M2": 80.30239466132976 }, "boundarySensitivity": { "exact3FtBinPlusPercent": 12.417887441516287, "center3FtBinPlusPercent": 12.448141343298188, "allTouched3FtBinPlusPercent": 12.872573585392432 } } ], "validationProvenance": { "canonicalSha256": "867c417b75fd8b050ebd40e37ead50f8cec38d41b8648f53e89970ce07b32f2c", "gate": "PASS_FOR_LOCAL_MAPPED_CLASS_PILOT", "independenceLimit": "Separate native and JavaScript LERC paths and separate intersection algorithms; shared OGR/GEOS/PROJ geometry engine. No independent physical-model validation or external expert certification." }, "publicationDate": "2026-10-13", "publicationAuthorization": "User approved publication of the reviewed three-city pilot." }